Paul Zeise: Expectations for the Steelers are incredibly high — maybe too high

There is so much to like about the Steelers’ offseason, the moves they made and the progress of players like Kenny Pickett. There are so many positive developments and so many reasons for those who follow the Steelers to feel optimistic about this season. I get it, and I also think I’m looking at a playoff team, or at least a team that will make a serious run toward the postseason.

I also don’t think it is unrealistic to believe they have as good of a chance as any of the other three teams to win the AFC North. They are better than the Browns. The Bengals have a hobbled quarterback.

And the Ravens have a quarterback who has been hobbled way too much the past two seasons. It isn’t a stretch to believe the Steelers will go 4-2 in the division, and if they do that, they will likely win it. All of these glowing projections make sense, as the Steelers rebuilt their linebacker group, their cornerback group, their offensive line and, of course, Pickett is older and a year more experienced.

This looks like a roster that is reloaded, deep and without many flaws. Add the fact that Mike Tomlin is still one of the best coaches in the NFL, and it all should make for a very fun fall and winter at Acrisure Stadium. That being said, when I hear some local pundits predicting 13 wins, a Super Bowl appearance and one even claiming they are better than the Chiefs, I have to wonder if some people have lost their minds.

Optimism is one thing, but there is a line where expectations are probably too high. The Steelers may be really good, but they don’t play in a vacuum and there are a lot of good teams in the AFC. I could see them getting to 10-11 wins, but I could also see them winning nine and missing the playoffs.

That’s why national media types who are calling the Steelers a sleeper are a little hard to take, as well, because nobody is sleeping on the Steelers. I haven’t seen any projections of the Steelers being anything less than nine wins and a playoff contender. I am not saying they don’t exist, but for the most part anyone who has paid attention understands the Steelers are going to be a good team that contends for the playoffs.

That is why the idea that they are a sleeper is just as silly as bold declarations that they are better than the defending champs. Pickett looked good in the preseason, but he is still unproven. The offensive line should be better, but we won’t know that until the season begins.

The cornerback grouping should be better, as should the inside linebackers, but games are not won on paper. And while I could make the case the Steelers are the best team in the AFC North, I could make just as strong of a case that they are the fourth-best team. The Ravens go where Lamar Jackson takes them, and he is the most dynamic player in the NFL.

He obviously has to stay healthy, but if he does, the Ravens are going to be a very difficult team to deal with week to week. Joe Burrow is hurt and the Bengals still have offensive line questions, for sure. But Burrow is Burrow, and he has proven the last two years he is capable of carrying them to the finish line despite the offensive line.

The biggest question in the division is the Browns. I am not sold they are very well coached, but they have a really good roster and a good run game. Deshaun Watson is the wild card, and he may be cooked and can’t play a lick anymore.

The Steelers are as good as those three other teams, but there are so many variables in a regular season that are beyond a team’s control that there are likely to be some ups and downs, which is what makes the most optimistic projections seem a little far fetched. One major factor, as we saw last year, is T. J.

Watt’s ability to stay healthy, as the Steelers are a completely different team with him than they are without him. I don’t doubt the Steelers will be good, and I think it will be really interesting to see how they match up with the best teams in the AFC. But I would like to see them play at a high level consistency and beat the best teams on their schedule before I’m ready to start talking about long playoff runs and Super Bowls.

Paul Zeise: pzeise@post-gazette. com or Twitter: @paulzeise First Published September 5, 2023, 6:41PM .